The Central Bank kept the key rate at 19%.
The following ratings have been included in the text of the PPK:
“The acceleration of immunization around the world, especially in developed countries, is supporting the process of global economic recovery. However, economies that have made progress in immunization programs have shown better performance of economic activity by easing restrictions.
Rapid recovery in global demand, high commodity prices, supply constraints in some sectors and rising transportation costs are driving up producer and consumer prices internationally . The negative effects of the climatic conditions encountered in the main exporting countries of agricultural raw materials on world food prices are observed. The effects of rising global inflation and inflation expectations on international financial markets remain significant.
Leading indicators highlight that domestic economic activity followed a solid course in the third quarter, also driven by foreign demand. The acceleration of the diffusion of vaccination to the whole of society allows the service and tourism sectors negatively affected by the epidemic to revive and maintain economic activity with a more balanced composition. Commercial loans are moderately priced.
The adequacy of the macroprudential measures taken to bring consumer credit, which has increased recently due to openness and delayed demand, to a moderate price is being monitored.
The favorable conditions of external demand and the restrictive monetary policy implemented positively affect the current account balance. The current account surplus is expected for the remainder of the year, as the strong upward trend in exports and the strong acceleration in vaccination boost tourism activities. The upward trend in the current account is important for the objective of price stability.
In addition to recent increases in import prices and administered / managed prices, demand conditions, supply constraints in some sectors, volatility of inflation during the summer months due to the openness and high levels of inflation expectations continue to pose risks to price behavior and the outlook for inflation.
In addition to the high levels of international prices of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs, the rise in food prices in July, due to the combination of the supply effects of climatic conditions with the effects of openness, was the determinant of rising inflation. On the other hand, the slowing effects of monetary tightening on credit and domestic demand are observed.
Given the high levels of inflation and inflation expectations, the current stance of monetary policy will be decisively maintained until a significant decline in the forecast path of the Inflation Report is reached. . Therefore, the Council decided to keep the key rate constant.
The CBRT will resolutely continue to use all the tools at its disposal in accordance with its main objective of price stability. Until strong indicators of a permanent decline in inflation occur and the medium-term target of 5% is reached, the policy rate will continue to be set above inflation, now the strong disinflationary effect.
The stability to be achieved in the general price level will positively affect macroeconomic stability and financial stability through the reduction in country risk premia, the initiation of reverse currency substitution, the upward trend in foreign exchange reserves and the decline. permanent financing costs. Thus, a favorable ground will be formed for the further growth of investment, production and employment in a healthy and sustainable manner.
The Council will continue to make its decisions in a transparent, predictable and data-driven environment.
The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be released within five working days.
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